Zuwa ƙarshen 2022, yawan kayan dakon kaya a cikin kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki zai sake tashi kuma adadin kayan zai daina faɗuwa.Koyaya, yanayin kasuwa a shekara mai zuwa yana cike da rashin tabbas.Ana sa ran ƙimar za ta ragu "kusan zuwa matsakaicin farashi".An shiga tashin hankali tun bayan da China ta dage takunkumi kan barkewar cutar a watan Disamba.Aiki a kamfanonin kasuwanci na masana'anta ya ragu sosai da kashi uku a karshen watan Disamba.Zai ɗauki kimanin watanni 3-6 don buƙatar gida da waje don murmurewa zuwa kashi biyu bisa uku na matakin riga-kafi.
Tun daga rabin na biyu na 2022, yawan jigilar kayayyaki yana raguwa koyaushe.Haɓakawa da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da yaƙin Rasha da Ukraine sun hana ikon saye na Turai da Amurka, tare da narkar da kayayyaki a hankali, kuma yawan kayan ya ragu sosai.Kayayyakin da ake fitarwa daga Asiya zuwa Amurka sun ragu da kashi 21 cikin 100 a watan Nuwamba daga shekarar da ta gabata zuwa 1.324,600 TEU, daga kashi 18 cikin 100 a watan Oktoba, a cewar Descartes Datamyne, wani kamfanin bincike na Amurka.
Tun watan Satumba, raguwar adadin kayan dakon kaya ya karu.Jigilar kwantena daga Asiya zuwa Amurka ta fadi a cikin wata na hudu kai tsaye a watan Nuwamba daga shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ke nuna kasala da bukatar Amurka.Kasar Sin, wacce ta fi kowacce kasa yawan lodin kasa, ta samu raguwar kashi 30 cikin dari, a wata na uku a jere sama da kashi 10 cikin dari. Vietnam ta samu karuwar kashi 26 bisa dari sakamakon karancin lokaci a bara yayin da cutar sankarau ta rage yawan samar da kayayyaki. fitarwa.
Duk da haka, an yi ta yin tururuwa a kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki na baya-bayan nan.Adadin jigilar kayayyaki na Evergreen Shipping da Yangming Shipping a Amurka ya koma cikakke.Baya ga tasirin jigilar kayayyaki a gaban bikin bazara, ci gaba da toshe bakin tekun kasar Sin shi ma muhimmin abu ne.
Kasuwar duniya ta fara rungumar ƙaramin lokacin jigilar kayayyaki, amma shekara mai zuwa za ta kasance shekara mai wahala.Yayin da alamun kawo karshen raguwar farashin kaya ya bayyana, yana da wuya a iya hasashen yadda koma baya zai kasance.A shekara mai zuwa zai shafi mafi mahimmanci canje-canje a cikin farashin jigilar kayayyaki, IMO sababbin ka'idojin fitar da iskar carbon za su fara aiki, mayar da hankali ga duniya game da guguwar jirgin ruwa.
Manyan masu jigilar kaya sun fara amfani da dabaru daban-daban don tinkarar raguwar yawan kayan.Na farko, sun fara daidaita yanayin aiki na hanyar Gabas-Turai mai Nisa.Wasu jirage sun zaɓi su ketare mashigin Suez Canal da komawa zuwa Cape of Good Hope sannan zuwa Turai.Irin wannan canjin zai ƙara kwanaki 10 zuwa lokacin tafiya tsakanin Asiya da Turai, yana adana kuɗin Suez da kuma sanya tafiyar hawainiya ta fi dacewa da hayaƙin carbon.Mafi mahimmanci, adadin jiragen da ake buƙata zai ƙaru, a kaikaice yana lalata sabon ƙarfin.
1. Buƙatu za ta kasance ƙasa da ƙasa a cikin 2023: Farashin ruwan teku zai kasance mara ƙarfi kuma mara ƙarfi.
"Tsarin tsadar rayuwa yana cin abinci ga masu amfani da wutar lantarki, wanda ke haifar da raguwar buƙatun kayan da ake shigowa da su daga waje. Babu alamar magance matsalar a duniya, kuma muna sa ran yawan ruwan teku zai ragu."Patrik Berglund ya annabta, "Wannan ya ce, idan yanayin tattalin arziki ya kara tabarbarewa, zai iya yin muni."
An ruwaito cewa wani kamfanin jigilar kayayyaki ya ce da wuya a iya hasashen ci gaban kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki a shekara mai zuwa.Kasuwar kwantena ta tsaya cik a 'yan watannin da suka gabata bayan da aka samu raguwar farashin kayan dakon kaya da bukatu.Hasashen yanayin kasuwancin gaba ɗaya ya zama mafi wahala ta fuskar rashin tabbas, in ji kamfanin.
Ya zayyana abubuwan haɗari da yawa: "Misali, rikicin Rasha da Ukraine da ke gudana, tasirin manufofin keɓewa, da tattaunawar ma'aikata a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Spain da Amurka."Bayan haka, akwai fagage guda uku na musamman.
Matsakaicin faɗuwar farashin tabo: ƙimar tabo na SCFI ya kai kololuwa a farkon watan Janairu na wannan shekara, kuma bayan an samu raguwa sosai, jimlar faɗuwar ita ce 78% tun farkon Janairu.Hanyar Shanghai-Arewacin Turai ta ragu da kashi 86 cikin dari, kuma hanyar Shanghai-Spanish-American Trans-Pacific ta ragu da kashi 82 bisa dari a kan dala 1,423 a kowace FEU, kashi 19 cikin 100 kasa da matsakaicin 2010-2019.
Abubuwa na iya yin muni ga DAYA da sauran masu ɗaukar kaya.DAYA na tsammanin farashin aiki zai ci gaba da karuwa kuma farashin kaya ya ci gaba da faduwa yayin da hauhawar farashin kaya ke tashi zuwa lambobi biyu.
A gaban samun kuɗi, raguwar da ake tsammani daga Q3 zuwa Q4 za ta ci gaba a daidai wannan ƙimar ta 2023?"Ana sa ran hauhawar farashin kayayyaki," in ji Mista ONE.Kamfanin ya yanke hasashen samun kudin shiga a rabin na biyu na shekarar kasafin kudinsa kuma ya ce ribar aiki fiye da rabi idan aka kwatanta da na farkon da na biyu na bara.
2. Farashin kwangila na dogon lokaci yana ƙarƙashin matsin lamba: farashin jigilar kaya zai ci gaba da canzawa a ƙaramin matakin.
Bugu da kari, tare da raguwar farashin tabo, kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki sun ce ana sake tattaunawa kan kwangiloli na dogon lokaci a baya don rage farashin.Da aka tambaye shi ko kwastomomin sa sun nemi a rage farashin kwangilolin, ONE ya ce: "Lokacin da kwantiragin na yanzu zai kare, ONE zai fara tattaunawa da abokan huldar sabuntawa."
Manazarta Kepler Cheuvreux Anders R.Karlsen ya ce: "Halin da za a yi a shekara mai zuwa ba shi da kyau, farashin kwangila kuma zai fara tattaunawa a matakin ƙasa kuma kuɗin da dillalai ke samu zai daidaita."A baya Alphaliner ya ƙididdige cewa ana sa ran kudaden shiga na kamfanonin jigilar kaya zai ragu tsakanin 30% zuwa 70%, bisa ga bayanan hasashen farko da kamfanonin jigilar kaya suka ruwaito.
Faɗuwar buƙatun mabukaci har ma yana nufin masu ɗaukar kaya yanzu suna "fafatawa don ƙara," a cewar Shugaba na Xeneta.Jørgen Lian, babban manazarci a Kasuwannin DNB, ya annabta cewa za a gwada layin ƙasa a cikin kasuwar kwantena a cikin 2023.
Kamar yadda James Hookham, shugaban Hukumar Kula da Jiragen Ruwa ta Duniya, ya yi nuni a cikin bita na kwata-kwata na kasuwar jigilar kaya, wanda aka fitar a wannan makon: "Daya daga cikin manyan tambayoyin da ke shiga cikin 2023 shine nawa ne raguwar adadin masu jigilar kayayyaki za su yi niyyar sake tattaunawa kan kwangiloli. da adadin adadin da za a ware don kasuwar tabo. Ana sa ran kasuwar tabo za ta fado kasa da matakan da aka riga aka samu barkewar annobar a cikin makonni masu zuwa."
Lokacin aikawa: Fabrairu-14-2023